Why Are You Still Sending Your Kids to School?

My son and I spent four hours last Friday, a “school day,” riding our bikes on a path winding along the river. Our turnaround point was at the bottom of a small waterfall. During our time there, I…

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Fed Crushing The Economy and Stock Market

The Fed’s Myopia Leads To Over Reacting

The Fed is trying to engineer a soft landing of the economy while simultaneously capping inflation. Will they succeed?

The Fed has a history of myopia. They can barely read today’s headlines and then they over react to what they read. Seeing the future clearly? Not a chance! Instead, here is what will happen:

This is a pretty dramatic prediction but my motto is often wrong but never in doubt! :)

Here’s what the problem is.

The Fed has an atrocious record. They have destroyed 97% of the wealth of the American public through their overly expansionary monetary policy sine they were founded in 1913.

But, hey, forget about that. Let’s go waaaay back in history to 2020. The economy was getting too hot for the Fed so they decided to start raising interest rates and reducing liquidity in 2017 and really started tightening in 2018. The tightening finally got to such an extreme level that I issued my famous Financial Crisis 2020 report in March 2019. In it, I predicted a bear market in stocks and a recession in the economy in March 2020. Perfect.

Oh, you think Covid caused the recession? Well, yes and no.

The economy and stock market were going to drop anyway. But Covid accelerated the problem. But let’s not forget that it was the federal and state governments that decided to crush the economy through lockdowns, not the people.

Then the economy and the stock market collapsed. So the Fed dropped interest rates to zero and stood on the street corner handing out $100 bills.

That helped the economy recover from their previous over reaction to economic strength but of course the easing was an over reaction to the economic weakness. They keep swinging from one extreme to…

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